Friday, February 20, 2009

Effectiveness of endless artillery bombings

We had touched upon this topic in one of the comments recently, but would like to discuss it here for others to consider. The Sri Lankan military has claimed for the last month that there are only 500 LTTE fighters left in the Vanni. Along with these fighters are around 200,000 Tamil civilians. The ratio of LTTE to civilians would be 0.25% (a quarter of a percent). Thus the number of LTTE fighters killed by the relentless artillerly bombing can be estimated by multiplying the number of civilian casualties by 0.0025. We have estimates that there have been 2,000 civilians killed in artillerly strikes in the last one month. So the number of LTTE fighters killed by these relentless artillerly strikes in the same period is roughly 5 people (2,000 x 0.0025). Think for a minute if this seems to be an acceptable method to fight "terrorists". Do you think it is worth killing 2,000 helpless civilians in exchange for killing 5 LTTE fighters? What this shows is that the nonstop bombing for the last one month has done virtually nothing to the LTTE, but has devastated the civilian population.

For the sake of argument, let us accept everything that the Sri Lankan government says. The LTTE are "terrorists" who have taken 200,000 civilians as hostages to use as human shields. How would civilized countries go about freeing those 200,000 civilians and defeating the 500 terrorists? I don't think there is a single country in the world that would decide to relentlessly bomb the civilian hostages in an attempt that would result in only killing 5 terrorists. Mathematically it is proven that the bombings did nothing to the LTTE. The only victims of the artillerly barrage were the civilians, whom the government was pretending to "save".

The fact that the government was willing to kill 2,000 civilians in exchange for nothing accomplished against the LTTE shows that they want to punish the civilians for having lived in LTTE controlled territory for the last 10 years. If al qaeda terrorists had taken 200,000 hostages in New York, could anyone even dream of the United States resorting to carpet bombing of New York to kill the terrorists? By doing that the terrorists have won, because they made you do their own work. No country in the world would have reacted in the way Sri Lanka has against their own civilians.

If there is any positive side to this terrible massacre it is that the entire world has now been exposed to the genocide committed by the Sri Lankan government. The quiet war that had no witnesses has now been brought before the world and everyone has seen the brutality of the Sinhalese. The Sri Lankan government may think that means nothing, because the international community is weak and spineless. But even the spineless international community has a limit, and as public opinion switches, they also dump the villains they themselves created and then pretend to be the protectors of justice.

What has the Sri Lankan government accomplished by this offensive? On the map it looks great, but for how long? What if they enter PTK and find another ghost town, with no signs of LTTE leaders, LTTE weapons, LTTE vehicles? After using 100,000 soldiers and everything at their disposal they supposedly surrounded the last rebel held area and held them within a 10 kilometer sized square, with absolutely no chance of escape. But when the army finally does enter this tiny parcel of land, what happens if they find nothing, just like the U.S. army found nothing in the Tora Bora caves after months of fighting?

The Sri Lankan army will be stretched throughout the North of the country with more than 100,000 soldiers, but for how long? How long can they maintain such huge numbers of soldiers in the North while simultaneously dealing with guerilla attacks from unknown directions. The Sri Lankan army will have accomplished absolutely nothing by this offensive. On the contrary, they have revealed to the world their genocidal intent, created an entire generation of enemies from amongst the Tamil civilians they bombed, and stretched their military resources beyond their abilities to maintain. Though they may win a battle, they will have lost the war politically, economically and strategically. Time will be their greatest enemy. As the realities of the situation sink in, and the euphoric propaganda presses slowly squeek to a stop, the people in the South will realize that the great "liberating victory" they were promised, that cost 20,000 Sri Lankan soldier's lives, was nothing but propaganda to ensure a win at the elections.

Sri Lanka has now positioned itself in a very vulnerable position. If after entering PTK they find nothing and the war continues, the world will now begin to side against them and their genocidal mayhem. With the economy on the brink of collapse, an over stretched military accomplishing "nothing" is the very last thing they need to keep their country together. The government leaders will insist it was all necessary to "save the country". The killing of thousands of civilians, and displacement of hundreds of thousands was all in the interest of the country, because, after all, they did managed to kill 5 LTTE "terrorists" in the process.

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

As your earlier post said there are 40,000 ready to fight, fighter to civilian ratio should be 20% even if we assume your inflated number of 200,000 civilians. So, with this high of a fighter ratio aerial bombing would be pretty darn good!!!
Hoo hoo, now that they have lost, looks like Eelamists are becoming "crying babies". Seems that this blog too will become like Tamilnut very soon!! Hurray Hurray!!!

Anonymous said...

hey bhadrinath, wat's the latest on the airstrike in colombo, do u have any details?

Editor: "Badrinath" said...

Dear anonymous at the top. The 40,000 members of the civilian defense force have not been armed or sent to the front lines. As long as they do not fight they remain as civilians. Compulsory defense training does not make someone a combatant in any country.

Anonymous said...

hello badrinath, you are over and over aging caught with your pants down.

Anonymous said...

Dear Editor,

For once you have written something sensible! After months of pro-LTTE dribble it seems to me as if imminent military defeat has finally awakened a pragmatic and intelligent soul in you. So our hope is that the defeat of separatist terrorism will awaken more of our Tamil brethren from their LTTE induced brain slumber. Likewise, like you said, when the “euphoric propaganda process slowly squeaks to a stop” our Sinhala neighbours too will look around wonder where the promised terrorist free utopia went to!

Then starts the hard and interesting part! This is when we can start the fight to replace conservatives with democrats, generals with economists and soldiers with teachers and farmers.

We could never get there with the LTTE setting off bombs in busses!! With the demise of the LTTE we have a fighting chance!!

This! My friend, is the fight I hope you will join next!!!

Thoughtful Guy said...

One Pilot achieved Ealam today... another one is in hospital..these cruel sinhala doctors are preventing him from achieving Ealam....

Way to go ...

wts ur comment on the Air attack Badri?

Editor: "Badrinath" said...

Dear anonymous friend above,

As always, each person interprets what they read based on their own beliefs. If you want to accept the Sri Lankan government view that 500 LTTE fighters held off 55,000 Sri Lankan soldiers for a month, that is your right. But anyone with common sense realizes there are probably 10,000 to 15,000 LTTE fighters left. If you don't find them when you enter PTK, perhaps the propaganda you ate for breakfast wasn't as accurate as you thought. The fact that the LTTE can move boats and planes around at will, and the fact that even civilians are getting through the naval blockade shows the ground reality is different than what you are fed.

Anonymous said...

Badrinath,

As always your work show high degree of editorial skill..great work...do please continue..But the only thing that made me upset is that u are leaking out vital information before hand as u did on the previous article..it is a shame u didn't value those lives....Then u are risking them...Do u have an explaination for that?

Editor: "Badrinath" said...

Some things my friends tell me to say, and some things they tell me to remove. Some times they tell me to say and then tell me to remove. As a reporter I listen to my friends advice.

Anonymous said...

unless it is just a propaganda?

Editor: "Badrinath" said...

Also we never report anything that would endanger anyone's lives (neither sinhalese nor tamil). If an article appears that it is endangering someone's life, it actually isn't. Sometimes you may tell someone the sun rises in the east, but then the next morning the sun actually rises in the west over colombo.

Anonymous said...

but i think as a reporter u have the resposibility to avoid leaking out information that will eventually cause innocent lives..

Editor: "Badrinath" said...

If I have posted it here, then it is already safe to post it (movement has completed in prior days). I may say "East", but it may happen in "West". We can't guarantee the exact detail is correct. We are told to present an information and we present it as we receive it. Why our journalistic contacts provide a particular detail that may be wrong we can't know. But in general all information is accurate and safe for all parties involved.

4C said...

Both of our TAF crafts down. It's ok my dear die ass pora.send some money to buy another air craft. please....

Hon. VP

Anonymous said...

what about todays incident..which place was involved in todays incident..in tamilnet says Sri Lanka Air Force Headquarters whereas all other news agency says..Inland Revenue Department..so confusing..

Anonymous said...

thanks for the explaination..Badrinath? u still there.. any news on todays incident..i find ur news more logical and trustworthy than other places..

Bhairav said...

So far, TAF was just show pony without any significant track records, but why they decided to dance at this movement? Yet another amature decision is by desperate LTTE leadership.

Anonymous said...

TAF tried to motivate the Little LTTE basterds and its demotivation now... ha ha

Anonymous said...

BREAKING NEWS

One ball of Fat Pig was found in Temple Trees, the other in Katunayake dutring the search operation after the TIN crash.

Anonymous said...

Hi Badrinath

Can you make a good news out of this TIN crash like you did 5000 SLA KIA?

So we can lough ourselves for few days.

Come on do something then you can later remove the article.

Anonymous said...

Both eelam airways -fly only one way - air craft
were destroyed by the air defence system.

Sinhala friend said...

Hello my dear Badri,I hope you are ok.
We both are Srilankans(forget the stupid comment of gen.Fonseka) and we are friends forever.
All the best.

Anonymous said...

Is that it? bloody hell.. after all the hype of a Tiger Air Force all they could do was crash into a coconut tree? Maybe the pilots were more into coconut plucking than suicide missions. Poor bastards and their wasted lives. So much could've been achieved instead. In any case this answers all those who were wondering about the air crafts were. Finally this menace is over.

This mission proves that it was done in desperation as nothing else could be done anymore with the air crafts. They waited all this while to see if the International Community will come to the rescue. It seems the facts are finally hitting hard of VP. Shows an expression of lost hope by the look on his face and the clutched hands. A look of a man on death row!

The LTTE sympathizers who bankrolled these planes with their hard earned dollars and pounds should wonder what if you had bought a few hundred/thousand computers instead and got the young ones in the north and east get some education? You may have gone through shit at one stage in life but God gave you and your children the grace to get over that and enjoy more fruits in life than you ever would have had. However you chose to waste that gift on killing others and holding grudges. This is a good lesson. You better dig deep down and see if you have done the correct thing and maybe its time to change your ways. Help the needy in poor and needy countries like Sri Lanka instead of bank rolling this nonsense.